GE’s Jeff Immelt Surprised That Chinese Interests Are Different

July 5th, 2010

In a recent statement, GE’s CEO Jeff Immelt expressed surprise and dismay that the Chinese government and business interests are pursuing moves that will seemingly make the Chinese market less friendly and accessible to western companies. Then, he went one step further, accusing the Chinese of the attempted “colonization” of other countries.

Shortly after making the statement, GE seemed to take a step back from his statement, saying that his remarks were made out of context.

China’s opening up the west and western investment has been predicated on access to the Chinese domestic market in return for the west’s sharing of technology and access to western export markets. Since 1979, this has worked to a large extent: Chinese joint ventures and startups got technology, and Chinese consumers got access to western consumer brands such as Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and KFC. In late 2008 though, the financial crisis forced western consumers to tighten up their spending, and the Chinese government had to quickly motivate Chinese consumers to spend, making up for the excess production capacity opened up by the collapse of western consumer spending. At the same time, Chinese government stimulus packages have driven development in green- and clean-tech technologies, which will be major technology and manufacturing growth areas over this century. China is a leader in the production of the rare earths which are crucial in the development of these new energy sources and has signaled to the west that they should seek alternative sources for materials besides China. Unfortunately, most of this information has not been properly covered in the western media.

To recap, the key technologies of the future are technologies which most western companies did not heavily invest in, and is one which Chinese companies are now leaders, and following 2008, the export markets’ collapse, western imports of Chinese goods have fallen off the cliff. As Europe tightens its belt further to wean itself off excess debt, it’s natural to expect Chinese exports to the EU to be largely anemic. As for the US, one of the few things which all sides seem to agree on is that the country has excess debt, and the problem needs to be addressed somehow.

In light of this situation, the west really has very little room for leverage in pushing China for anything. Why would Jeff Immelt, or anyone else, expect China to do anything else except pursue its own interests in light of this situation? And why should he expect those interests to be the same as the west’s? It’s not as if the west has been a shining example of responsibility, success and accountability for the whole world.

Where Jeff Immelt veered off into politics was his use of the sensitive word “colonization”. For most westerners who do not follow the Glenn Beck school of racial harmony, equality and justice, colonization is associated with a largely shameful period in western history, which left a scar on its relations with Africa and India. Saying that Chinese intentions are the same as the west in the 19th century is an over-simplification, and it is too early to say how China and Chinese corporations will behave. For the most part, Chinese government policy and Chinese companies have had a laser-focus on mineral extraction and business, to the exclusion of everything else. They have shown no interest in getting Africans to adopt Chinese language, textbooks and beliefs, as did most of the European colonial powers in the 19th century. For this reason, Jeff Immelt’s choice of the word “colonization” was unfortunate. In most cases, projecting past injustices onto the future don’t help us to gain further insights; instead, they appeal to the worst sides of our character and create further misunderstanding.

Countries like India have shown that they are very good at defending their own business interests and squeezing business concessions from China; they do not need help from the west.

If only the American taxpayer had been so well-protected!

Getting The Dragon Right

June 12th, 2008

On June 11, I attended an event in Beijing where Jack Perkowski, author of the book Managing the Dragon talked about his experiences doing business in China and on the Chinese economy. He also keeps a blog where he talks about China-related topics. In March, I had read the book and wrote an online review which you can read here.

During the dinner talk, Mr. Perkowski talked in greater depth about some of the issues he talked about in the book. Most of the audience of 20+ people were people who had considerable experience living and working in China.

He talked about how he saw China as having two different economies, which he calls the “local foreign economy” and the “local local economy”. He sees the local foreign economy as being made up of 400M people who have average annual income of US7500. The other 900M people have an annual average income of US2500. Right now, these are almost separate economies in the same country. The existence of the local local economy, which is very cost- and price-sensitive, means that there is a large part of the economy which needs modern things, but cannot afford western prices. Many Chinese companies are looking for new ways to reach this audience. This means that manufacturers are always looking for new ways to constantly cut their costs to reach them, which in turn leads to a very high rate of innovation.

An example he mentioned were piston rings. There are six global piston rings makers in the world, but there are 400 in China. The reason for the China discrepancy is because there is demand for cheaper solutions from the local local market, who are always looking for cheaper and more competitive components. While they have the same need for transport as the foreign local market, they cannot afford the expensive brand components.

In contrast, the foreign local economy accepts a higher level of costs, and is less sensitive to pricing pressure. These are mainly export manufacturers which have come to China from the US or Europe and come to manufacture auto parts first for their home markets and then later, other markets. Mr. Perkowski believes that in order to survive, it’s essential to reach down into the local local market. Unfortunately, many American car makers were unaware of this market, and wanted to sell only into the foreign local market. In the meantime, the toughest Chinese makers which have prospered and survived, claw their way into the local foreign market, where they are much leaner, meaner and smarter than the major US makers.

It made me think that in reality, China has a domestic market and an export market. The domestic market can be thought of as the local local market, and the export market is the local foreign market. Eventually, the two markets will merge, but it will take some time before that happens.

Mr Perkowski mentioned that the US “makes” 16M vehicles annually, of which 5M are imported from other countries. This means that in reality, the US makes some 11M vehicles annually. According to him, American makers are not able to make money on small cars, only on larger vehicles such as SUVs, which Americans are no longer buying because of high gasoline prices. The Chinese auto makers, in comparison, are able to manufacture small cars profitably. This year, Chinese makers will make some 10M+ vehicles, putting Chinese manufacturing capacity on a par with US makers. He believes that China will overtake the US economy in size, and Americans will have to get used to the idea of having the second largest economy in the world. (My note: Of course, it will take some time for India to take the world’s second largest economy position away from the US.)

He believes that the place where the US will continue to be dominant will be in efficient capital markets. This is a place where America will continue to be the world’s leader.

Mr. Perkowski does not speak Chinese, but his good common sense about doing business in China showed that he had a good deal more knowledge about China than many of those who speak the language. In his case, common sense and a good attitude have more than compensated.

China-India Software Outsourcing Podcast

February 14th, 2008

I was recently interviewed by Christine Lu of the China Business Network re the issue of China-India software outsourcing which I had earlier published a white paper about. If you would like to download the white paper, you can get it here
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You can download and listen to the podcast here.

This article touches on the number of Chinese visitors to India, and Indian visitors to China. The number of Indian visitors to China outnumbers the number of Chinese visitors to India by more than eight to one. This is quite a contrast to the huge numbers of Chinese who are now moving to Africa.

Any way you look at it, there is tremendous room for growth.

Changing Employment Trends in Asia

February 8th, 2008

In my previous article I talked about how skill demand in startups in China was changing, and that the skills needed from both local and non-Chinese had changed considerably.

This article from the Asia Times talks about how immigration and hiring trends are beginning to change in China and India. Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with it, it makes for interesting reading.

White Paper Comparing China/India Software Outsourcing

December 9th, 2007

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I have just published a new white paper called “Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies Are Outsourcing to China”.

The white papers covers the reasons why the Indian companies are coming to China, which mostly have to do with how tapped out the infrastructure in India is, the shortage of human talent, and lack of hardware infrastructure in India and how long it takes to set up in India.

China has good educational institutions in the tier two and three cities, which is why multinationals are expanding to those cities. I have not even heard anyone talk about India’s tier two and tier three cities.

Have you?

This means that India’s technology centers are highly concentrated, and because of severe competition from the leading IT service providers such as IBM, Accenture and EDS, they are under severe pressure to find talent.

Increasingly, the place they are going to find this talent is in China.

You can download this free PDF after registration here.